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The Dunning-Kruger Cognitive Bias

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which individuals with low ability in a specific domain tend to overestimate their competence. Described by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger in 1999, this bias suggests that the skills required to produce a correct response are often the very same skills needed to recognize a correct response. Consequently, incompetent individuals are often unaware of their own lack of skill.

The core of the issue lies in a deficit of metacognition, which is the ability to think about one's own thinking. People with low competence not only make errors but their incompetence also robs them of the capacity to realize it. For example, an amateur grammar enthusiast might believe they have mastered a language, while an expert can easily spot numerous errors in their writing. This phenomenon is not a matter of ego or arrogance but rather a genuine blind spot in self-awareness. The individual simply lacks the framework to assess their performance accurately.

Conversely, the Dunning-Kruger effect can also cause highly competent individuals to underestimate their relative ability. Experts may falsely assume that tasks they find easy are also easy for others, leading them to misjudge their own standing. The path to more accurate self-assessment for everyone involves gaining expertise and seeking external feedback. As knowledge and skills improve, so does one's ability to evaluate personal performance.